My Friends,

 

The fourth quarter is upon us. We’ve enjoyed the dominating brilliance of the first half, blemished only by what we thought at the time was simply a bad game by our rising star quarterback. Then came the third quarter when, with the exception of the second half against the Giants, you began feeling our guys were winning in spite of Rex Grossman. To be sure, the Bears lead the NFC in turnovers, having lost the ball a whopping 29 times, but somehow the defense has managed to keep the turnover ratio +10 (third in the league) while also putting up 30 points. And they are 10-2.

 

So we enter the fourth quarter with trepidation, wondering if our guys were a flash in the pan, if they have the juju to make good on their first half promise. After all, the Cowboys are on a roll, with some so-called experts now saying they’re the best team in the conference, and the Saints looking unstoppable with Brees, Duece, Bush and the rest of that offense.

 

Meanwhile our guys are stumbling, and staggering to the finish line is no way to enter the playoffs.

 

The four patsies left on the schedule should help, but with Tommie Harris’ status up in the air and Mike Brown already done, we’re left with that nagging feeling that maybe all those naysayers were onto something before the season.

 

Grossman tells us he’s thinking too much, while offensive coordinator Ron Turner says he’s once again scaled back the offense as much as he can as the Bears head down the stretch. Maybe that’s the problem. With a smaller game plan to think about, could it be that Grossman has more time to focus on the details of every play and is over thinking himself into mistakes? Maybe a better approach would be for Turner to open the playbook and expand the game plan, hoping that Rex will focus on the broad strokes rather than whether the strong safety has set up an extra step deep.

 

Or maybe Turner is looking in the wrong section of the book. For a team that supposedly gets off the bus running the football, the Bears have called more pass plays than runs this season. Stripping out the 18 “kneels” called at the end of halves or games, the Bears have run the ball just better than 48% of the time. At a minimum, if you flip that number over to the passing side, I think a lot of Rex’s problems go away. As a point of reference, last year the Steelers ran the ball on 57% of their offensive plays and a whopping 67% in their final four regular season games, when their playoff lives were at stake and the weather made it more difficult to pass. Seemed to work for them.

 

In his calming tones, Lovie Smith has told us that the Bears do have a plan, and if we’re just patient we’ll all find out what that plan is. It won’t be long until the Bears have home field advantage locked up, perhaps as soon as next week’s game against the Bucs. I have to think Turner is on board if there is a plan in place, and if the Bears continue to throw the ball more than half the time that means Smith wants exactly that. If that’s true then my guess is Smith plans on using the final two games to stage a quarterback competition, conveniently starting in the climate controlled indoor setting of Ford Field and finishing up in the elements against the NFC’s second worst defense. Smith has too much to lose, both personally and team-wise. He wants to know what he has, right now - who plays better when the wind blows, the temperature drops and the ball gets hard as a rock. There’s a Super Bowl on the line, and Rex is too skittish these days to simply hand him the job.

 

If he’s smart, Smith will call Olin Kreutz into his office and explain all this to him, make him understand before it starts, so that Kreutz can handle any locker room fallout. Then all Smith has to do is turn Grossman and Brian Griese loose and let them battle it out, with the winner named the Bears playoff quarterback. If it’s a true competition, I think it’s brilliant, with either Rex regaining his dominant form and earning his place under center or playoff opponents being forced to game plan for Griese without a shred of game film.

 

As far as playoff seedings go, pay no attention to that drivel being provided by the NFL, telling us that the Bears secure a bye with a win and losses by the Cowboys and Seahawks. The goal up at Halas Hall is home field advantage, not just a bye, and with a two game lead over their three closest competitors only New Orleans can catch the Bears if our guys finish 2-2. That’s because the Saints only have one conference loss, while Dallas and Seattle already have three. The Bears don’t have any, their two defeats coming against the AFC Dolphins and Patriots. If the Saints win out and the Bears finish 2-2 to both go 12-4, New Orleans would get the nod for the conference championship since the Bears would then have a worse conference record at 10-2. The Bears need three wins to lock down home field regardless of what the other guys do, or just two if the Saints lose only once.

 

And that’s why I’m rootin’ for the Lone Star ‘Boys on Sunday night, the sooner to start the quarterback competition in Detroit on Christmas Eve my friends.

 

Not that it would matter if they’d just hand the ball off a bit more.

 

LBF

12/9/2006